Pakistan-India conundrum and the way forward

The Pakistani federal cabinet has rejected the Economic Coordination Committee’s decision to import sugar, cotton and cotton yarn from India on 1 April 2021. It took almost less than 24 hours for the cabinet to say no to trade with the antagonistic neighbour. Earlier, the newly appointed Paki-stan Finance Minister Mr. Hammad Azhar announced to revive opening of trade with India after halt of alm-ost two years when Pakistan suspended all kinds of trade rou-tes connecting it with India in the wake of abrogation of the special status of Indian illegally occupied state of Jammu and Kashmir while revoking of article 370 of the Indian constitution and subsequent conversion of the status of the state of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir into Indian Union Territory on 5 August 2019. The announcement of Pakistani finance minister raised high hopes among the peace-loving circles on both sides of the border. However, these hopes were dashed to the ground when Pakistani cabinet did not approve proposal made by the ECC for opening of all kinds of trade routes with India to import sugar, cotton yarn and cotton. With the agreement between the Directors Gene-ral Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan and India for revival of the 2003 ceasefire accord and addressing each other’s “core issues”, sane voices in both India and Pakistan have expressed high hopes of an enhancement in bilateral relations. This major development led to the later events such as resumption of stalled talks on the Indus Waters, exchange of greetings between Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi by sending a message on the Pakistan Day and Pakistan Prime Minister’s reply lettercontaining greetings. However, despite the hype, things could not be moved ahead and the Pakistan government reversed its decision and deferred resumption of bilateral trade with India till the restoration of the status of Jammu and Kashmir to the pre- 5th August 2019 position.
What went wrong? This is the question which needed to be understood. Pakistan and India are victim of “self-image & enemy-image” along with “trust deficit” they are carrying with themselves for the last seven decades of bilateral relationship.
The announcement of the revival of the 2003 ceasefire agreement was not an accidental step rather it seems to be a calculated move on the part of both sides taken after a kind of secret contacts through backdoor channel directly or indirectly through foreign friends. And, this was symbolic step for lowering of temperature between Pakistan and India in general and on both sides of the LoC in particular. The revival of the ceasefire accord is a welcoming gesture because its direct beneficiaries are the Kashmiris who face ceasefire violations committed by both Indian and Pakistani armies. However, the subsequent steps, especially exchange of greetings between Prime Ministers of both countries and statement given by the Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa urging both countries to burry past and move forward, are quite significant. These steps manifest that both countries were engaged in some kind of direct (possibly through backdoor channel)or through third party to mitigate the intensity of the current heated nature of bilateral relationship.
There should not be any doubt that Indian move was without any calculation. Rather, it was a cautious attempt. It is quite interesting that what compelled or persuaded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to withdraw its preconditions for resumption of talks with Pakistan. Certainly, the Indian move should be understood in the context of its confrontation with China as well as the American policy to make India as counterweight to China in ‘what Americans now call’ Indo-Pacific. The Biden administration especially the Vice-president Kamila Harris has been raising voices against human rights violations in the Indian occupied Kashmir before becoming the vice-President. The most attractive and significant motive behind Indian move can be American secret advice to India to dilute tension with Pakistan so that India can fully concentrate on China in Asia-Pacific after collaborating with the US. India, perhaps after being convinced of the US suggestion, has agreed to re-launch normalization process with Pakistan.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has always been advocating a dialogue with India to resolve outstanding issues including core issue of Jammu and Kashmir. However, the present move on the part of Pakistan is due to shift in Pakistan’s approach from “geostrategic” to what Pakistani leadership term it as“geo-economics”. And, the current economic stress across the globe due to COVID-19 especially in developing countries like Pakistan, has also worked as catalyst for Pakistan’s consideration for normalization with India focusing on revival of trade links with India which will reduce cost of imports.
Keeping in view these factors behind goodwill gestures by Pakistan and India and subsequent possibility for resumption of dialogues between Pakistan and India, one can say that both Pakistan and India should be realistic to moving ahead on the bumpy road to peace. The Pakistan-India dialogue process is too delicate to be taken the best care of it even before launching of it. Both nuclear-armed countries should lay aside the war as an option to settle their bilateral differences and engage each other to dilute the tension. India should realize the sensitivity of the Jammu and Kashmir issue because without the settlement of Jammu and Kashmir no sustained peace can be achieved in South Asia.
Pakistan also needs to its house in order. For this purpose, what seems realistic and viable option for keeping Pakistan and India on the road to peace is contacts, negotiations, engagement, reengagements at multi-level and settlement of the Jammu & Kashmir issue through the “Musharraf-Manmohan” formula (purposefully it was called as “Musharraf formula” as Sanjay Baru narrates about it in his book The Accidental Prime Minister: The Making and Unmaking of Manmohan Singh published in 2014) which provides a framework not only for lessening of the difficulties of the Kashmiri masses rather settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir. This is high time for leadership of both India and Pakistan to portray as statesmen rather mere politicians.
—The writer teaches at the Department of International Relations, BZU, Multan

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